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Method to estimate the time it takes to restore

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  • #31
    Sorry that came out as lecturing. I should have thought about it and worded it better. You seem firmly anchored on your view, and while you have done a great job staying civil, and responding to others, you do not seem todo more than acknowledge there may be other factors that "mask" your hypothesis. But I have enjoyed this discussion and kudos to you for the way you have participated.

    I totally agree with WoodyHoody, anecdotal information by itself, taken at face value, is not a lot better than nothing. If filtered to the more credible accounts, cross checked in some way for credibility, then it may be useful if taken with some salt, but even then, it is not a lot better, just better.

    I also agree that for the most part it is all we have. Which is why these discussions tend to be unsatisfying. The mostly anecdotal information we have is only somewhat better than nothing.

    Again, sorry I came off as lecturing, re-reading it, I see that is how it reads.



    • #32
      From the information in this thread I count the mention of 9 restorers claiming from personal experience faster growth rate with more skin available and 3 claiming to not experience it with. It would be useful to extend this search to span more forums/threads.

      I've decided to take any possible further intermediate inquiry into this whole matter private.


      • #33
        To make an estimate on how long it takes to restore it would help to know how the skin growth rate is actually distributed among restorers.

        So I made an estimate on how the skin growth rate here characterized as the doubling time might be distributed among restorers. It is based on relative length growths being distributed according to the log-normal distribution and the anecdotal evidence (stories) that we have available.

        The mean value is 3.8 years and there is about 1/100 change for doubling time lower (better) than 2 years and about 1/100 change for doubling time higher (worse) than 7.3 years.

        Genetics, youth and tugging routine determine where one falls.

        As the next step I hope to put this method along with this figure into nice clean image with title such as "How long does it take for me to restore?".


        • #34
          I finally got around to finishing the image I wanted to make so here it is as png, pdf and as modifiable svg. Feel free to comment, share, modify or use this work. I think the next step would be to encourage restorers to measure their progress and share it so we would have measured data on growth progress.
          Click image for larger version

Name:	method.png
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          Last edited by Blondie9; 05-27-2019, 04:36 AM.


          • #35
            Stop right now with this nonsense. There's no way to know. I thought I'd be done in 2 years and it's been 10...
            Started CI-0 with no movable skin and 0% FEC

            Currently at CI-4 with 64% FEC

            See my progress gallery